Fresh figures from YouGov show Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on track to secure a clear majority at Saturday's election, while the opposition leader could oversee the coalition's worst election result in 80 years.
It's a startling decline from prior to the campaign in February, when polls put Mr Dutton on track to win government.
He urged voters not to concentrate on the events of the last five weeks, but to think about how their lives had got worse under the Albanese administration.
"This election really is a referendum, not about the election campaign, but about the last three years of government," Mr Dutton told reporters.
"We should have called out Labor's lies earlier on," he added when asked whether he would have done anything differently on the campaign.
"When you have a look at what this government has done; the hurt, the personal, family hurt that the Albanese government has delivered on Australia is without precedent."
If the party does go backwards, even Mr Dutton's northern Brisbane seat of Dickson might not be safe.
He was back on home turf on Thursday morning to attend a Salvation Army Red Shield Appeal at an RSL club in the suburb of Bray Park.
Speculation about Mr Dutton's demise in Dickson has accompanied every election since he first won the seat in 2001, but he has always managed to hold onto the marginal electorate.
This time, he faces a challenge from Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith, who joins the race with Labor's Ali France, a candidate who has whittled the Liberals' margin down to 1.7 per cent over two elections.
But Mr Dutton claims his presence in his electorate 48 hours before polling day isn't an indication that he's concerned about losing his seat.
As chair of the Salvos' district appeal, he attends the charity drive every year, clearing whatever is on his schedule to help raise money for homelessness, family violence and addiction services, he said.
The coalition will release its policy costings later on Thursday, with the party touting a $40 billion reduction in gross debt compared to under Labor.
Savings have been assured by repealing Labor's $17 billion income tax cuts, axing investment in housing and electricity transmission infrastructure and shrinking the size of the public service.
But the coalition has also promised to increase spending, including through a $20 billion regional investment fund, and to reduce the tax take through a $1200 one-off rebate and a $6 billion cut in the fuel excise by 25 cents a litre.
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