The report and accompanying world beef map highlight global beef trade has increased substantially over the past five years, with exports rising by 14 per cent from 2019 to nearly 13 million metric tons in 2024.
Rabo Research senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said Brazil and China have emerged as dominant forces, with Brazil leading exports and China becoming the top importer.
“Brazilian beef exports have surged from 2.3 million metric tons in 2019 to an estimated 3.6 million metric tons in 2024, largely fuelled by China's growing market demand.”
These volumes are double those of the second-largest exporter in 2024, Australia, the report said.
The global beef market has experienced significant volatility in the last five years due to disease outbreaks, geopolitical tensions and shifting economic conditions.
According to Mr Gidley-Baird, this unpredictability is expected to persist, impacting traditional trade flows and creating uncertainty.
“As tariffs and market access restrictions continue, the geopolitical environment remains a key factor in ongoing market fluctuations. Companies that can navigate this volatility and capitalise on favourable conditions will be well-positioned for success,” he said.
Mr Gidley-Baird said Australia and, more recently, the US have experienced historically-low beef cow inventories and record-high cattle prices.
“The uncertainty and unpredictability have led to increasing volatility in global beef markets, with prices regularly reaching record highs and dropping to historic lows,” he said.
The report says the second half of the decade is set to witness continued growth in global beef trade, driven by increasing consumption in Asia.
American countries, particularly Brazil, are expected to meet this demand through productivity improvements and enhanced management practices.
“Other established exporters – such as the US, Australia, and New Zealand – are expected to see more value-driven growth, leveraging quality attributes and established supply chains.”
Global beef production has increased by 5.5 per cent over the last five years, but, the report says, a temporary decline is anticipated in the coming years, particularly in the US, Brazil and Europe.
“This reduction will support cattle and beef prices, shifting margins to producers,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“However, production levels are expected to recover, bolstered by improved genetics and increased carcass weights.
“With lower global supplies of beef expected in the next couple of years, and our expectation that growth in beef consumption will be driven by net-importing countries, there is likely to be a growing tension between global and domestic customers.
“Australia, New Zealand and Brazil have experienced this recently, as very strong demand from US consumers has led to increased export volumes and prices, and this has supported beef and cattle prices in those countries.”
