A newspoll conducted from May 10 to 13 gave Labor a 54 to 46 lead and showed a 53 per cent dissatisfaction rating for Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
The Nicholls Labor candidate has advised his supporters to put Independent candidate for Nicholls Rob Priestly third on the ballot paper.
He has the Fusion Party’s Andrea Otto second.
Early polls — conducted three months ago — suggested Mr Priestly had more than 20 per cent support from Nicholls voters, bettered only slightly by Nationals candidate Sam Birrell and the Liberal Party’s Steve Brooks.
At that point, however, the poll indicated that there were still 20 per cent of voters who were undecided.
The Newspoll shows the Coalition with 41 per cent of the vote in Nicholls, between Mr Birrell and Mr Brooks, while the Labor candidate has 19 per cent of the vote — similar to his poll result against retiring member Damian Drum at the 2019 election.
Mr Priestly, who would fall into the “other” category on the Newspoll, is shown as having 19 per cent.
When contacted he suggested the poll had not used his name, which would have increased the poll result.
Mr Priestly has been campaigning strongly on the fact that a minority government, or even hung parliament, would ensure an Independent representative in the government would have a strong hand in any negotiations for his electorate.
The improved standing of the Australian Labor Party at a national level could impact the result for the Nicholls electorate’s only Independent candidate — despite him appearing on the bottom rung of the 11-strong ballot paper for this weekend’s federal election.
One Nation candidate Rikki Tyrrell had 13 per cent of the vote in the Newspoll, wIth the Greens and United Australia candidates both on four per cent.
The poll suggests that Labor will have enough support (80 seats to the Coalition’s 63) to form government of its own accord, but in Nicholls the result has been traditionally very different.
Damian Drum polled more than 50 per cent of the primary vote at the 2019 election, but the Liberal party did not have a candidate at the election.
Mr Priestly will need to gain more primary vote support than either Mr Birrell, considered unlikely in most circles, and Mr Brooks in order for the Labor party preferences to have any impact.
