The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to strengthen further into 2027, and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization says.
The UN weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño would persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time the WMO has expressed such a degree of certainty, it said.
"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference.
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, such as typhoons.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months.
This weather pattern often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, while the west coast of South America, East Africa and the southern United States frequently experience heavy rainfall. Europe tends to be less affected.
Sample Pacific Ocean temperatures in this year's El Niño — one of just four categorised in the top “very strong” bracket in records dating back to 1950 — are already more than 2°C above normal, the WMO said.
The event has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO said El Niño was set to peak towards the end of this year.
Global average temperatures are often particularly high in the year following an El Niño. The year 2024, the hottest on record at around 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, followed an El Niño.
“Normally after an El Niño event we tend to see a pulse in the global temperatures — a temporary one,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s chief of climate prediction services, told reporters, referring to 2024.
“2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record.”
Ms Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
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