“Dry conditions and strong demand for water have driven releases from Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock. Levels have fallen at both storages,” Dr Bailey said.
“The risk of spill at Lake Eildon this season has decreased to 25 per cent. The risk at Lake Eppalock has reduced to 12 per cent.”
Dr Bailey said a low risk of spill will be declared on Tuesday, June 11 to enable entitlement holders to finalise their carryover planning for 2024-25.
“The June declaration will return water in spillable accounts to entitlement holders,” he said.
“The declaration will account for any deductions that may be needed before 30 June.
“Entitlement holders should begin checking their allocation accounts now for the impacts of water returning from spillable accounts.”
Dr Bailey noted that entitlement holders can choose to carryover or trade unused allocation or elect to relinquish water prior to the start of the 2024-25 water year.
VFF Water Council chair Andrew Leahy said the current spill situation was unprecedented.
The VFF said in previous years, either all the water in spillable accounts has been deducted due to spills, or a low risk of spill has been declared earlier in the season, allowing this allocation to return to allocation accounts.
Any deductions from spills before the end of the water year will be finalised on June 10.
Currently, 343 Gl remain in spillable accounts on the Goulburn and 5 Gl on the Campaspe.
Any allocation remaining in spillable water accounts on June 10 will return to allocation accounts for entitlement holders to factor into their carryover planning for 2024-25.
Any deductions from spillable water accounts that occur in July 2024 will only factor in spills that occurred after July 1. This will ensure that no-one who carries over water into the 2024-25 season is unfairly impacted by any spills occurring in late June.
The VFF says this means that if you hold 50 Ml in a spillable account, this will be returned to your allocation account on June 10.
You can then use, trade or carryover this 50 Ml by June 30. If the dam spills before July 1, you won't lose any of this water.
Planning for carryover into the next water year
Depending on the weather conditions in the next water year, carrying over water can provide a number of benefits, but it also comes with certain risks, the VFF assessment says.
Benefits can be significant in dry years, including ensuring access to water early in the season and protecting users against future increases in market prices.
Conversely, in wet years, water stored above entitlement volume could be lost due to spills or quarantined in spillable accounts for a long time, and the market price of water can fall relative to the price it could have been sold for in the previous season, resulting in a loss of value.
VFF CARRYOVER FACT SHEET
What is it?
Carryover is a tool available to entitlement holders to manage their water allocation from one season to the next.
Carryover keeps unused water in the dams at the end of the season for use or trade in the following season.
It was first introduced in Victoria in 2007 as a drought support measure and reviewed in 2012.
How does it work?
In Victoria’s Goulburn and Murray systems:
- Water can be carried over against high-reliability water shares (HRWS) and low-reliability water shares (LRWS) up to 100 per cent of entitlement.
- Your water will automatically be carried over in accordance with the rules. If you don’t want to carry over some of your water, you can use or trade it or you can apply to relinquish your water.
- Any water carried over will first be deemed to be carried over against any LRWS attached to an allocation account.
- A carryover volume that exceeds the LRWS will then be carried over against the HRWS attached to the allocation account.
- There is a five per cent reduction on water carried over for evaporation losses.
- From the start of the new season, you can use or trade any water that you have carried over or received from new season allocations up to the full volume of your entitlements.
Spillable water accounts
- If carryover and seasonal allocation are greater than 100 per cent HRWS and LRWS, this excess water then goes into the spillable water account.
- Water in the spillable account is quarantined and lost in proportion to the storages spill. It can be used after a low spill risk is announced.
- A low spill risk is defined as a less than 10 per cent chance that the storages will spill during the remainder of the season.
- The Resource Manager for northern Victoria (Goulburn-Murray Water) is responsible for making a declaration of low risk of spill, considering how full the dams are and the range of possible future inflows under prevailing climatic and catchment conditions.
- Once a low risk of spill is declared, the water in the spillable accounts is returned to the allocation accounts, where it is then available for use or trade.
- The purpose of the spill rules is to prevent carryover from locking up space in the dam when it is needed for inflows that support new allocations or to build reserves for future seasons.
