Utah District Court Judge Tony Graf made the ruling at a hearing on Tuesday where prosecutors laid out what they called "overwhelming" evidence that a capital trial of Robinson, 23, was warranted for the murder of one of the US political right's most prominent figures.
An arraignment will follow the probable cause ruling. Robinson has yet to enter a plea.
Utah County lawyers accused the former apprentice electrician of firing the single shot that killed Kirk, 31, as he held one of his trademark campus debates that helped propel him to national prominence.
Robinson faces seven charges, among them aggravated murder for endangering the lives of others at the event. That count carries the death penalty in Utah.
Utah County prosecutor Ryan McBride presented video of what he said was Robinson taking up a sniper position at Utah Valley University in Orem on September 10, 2025, before he shot Kirk.
He displayed pictures that he said showed Robinson created a "great risk of death" to others, with Kirk's security detail close to Kirk when he was shot.
McBride said the four rounds in Robinson's rifle demonstrated that the shooter was prepared to fire more rounds if the first missed, further endangering others.
"He lay down in a prone position, and he would have seen this mass of people of 3000 plus people there for the event, took aim, put his crosshairs on Charlie Kirk, and fired," McBride told the court.
Defence lawyer Staci Visser said the shooting endangered no one but Kirk, arguing the crime did not meet the standard of aggravated murder.
Visser said the assailant did not engage with anyone else or reload the weapon, but simply shot the gun and ran away.
"There is one act. There is one shot. There is one bullet. There is one victim," Visser told the court.
"There was no evidence that would suggest that anyone else was threatened."
During the hearing, the prosecutor cited test results that showed Robinson's DNA was on the alleged murder weapon. Defence lawyer Michael Burt questioned the reliability of that testing.
McBride alleged Robinson, who was in a relationship with his roommate Lance Twiggs, targeted Kirk for his political views against gay marriage and transgender rights. That argument could bolster the prosecution as it pursues the death penalty.
He cited a text message from Robinson in which he allegedly told Twiggs he shot Kirk because "some hate can't be negotiated out".
Among those in the packed courtroom were Kirk's parents, Robert and Kathryn, and his wife, Erika, who has taken leadership of the late activist's conservative youth organisation.
A co-founder of conservative youth organisation Turning Point USA, Kirk was credited with energising young voters behind President Donald Trump's 2024 re-election campaign.
