The incumbent member, Labor’s Lisa Chesters, is under real threat of losing her seat, with an early distribution of preferences favouring the Nationals’ Andrew Lethlean.
Despite a first preference count of 33.9 per cent to Ms Chesters, Mr Lethlean’s 30.56 per cent has put him in good stead for the redistribution of preferences.
It is too early to tell who will come out on top, as only seven of the 66 polling places have returned their two candidate preferred count to the Australian Electoral Commission.
These are the pre-polling locations and hospital teams.
On Saturday night, ABC chief election analyst Antony Green projected a win to Ms Chesters, who was sitting around 50.7 to 51.4 per cent to Mr Lethlean’s 48.6 to 49.3 per cent.
On Monday evening, however, these projections changed to favour Mr Lethlean, who at that point was ahead 52.7 per cent to Ms Chesters’ 47.3 per cent.
These numbers had balanced out on Tuesday morning, however, with the ABC’s projected tally at 50.7 per cent for Mr Lethlean and 49.3 per cent for Ms Chesters.
As preferences continue to be redistributed, these figures will likely change.
At 10am on Tuesday, the ABC reported that Mr Lethlean led by an estimated 1285 votes.
When more updates become available, they will be published on the Campaspe News website.
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