In its latest Southern Hemisphere climate monitoring update, the BoM confirmed the 2025-26 La Niña had ended, with the Pacific Ocean temperatures rising beyond the La Niña qualifying range.
However, the Bureau said recent warming beneath the ocean surface suggested temperatures in the central tropical Pacific were likely to continue rising in coming months.
Rising Pacific Ocean temperatures are a key trigger for El Niño, setting off atmospheric changes that can reduce rainfall across Australia, including northern Victoria.
All major climate models, including the Bureau’s, are forecasting further warming through winter, with many indicating conditions consistent with El Niño by late winter or early spring.
While the timing and strength remain uncertain, the BoM says the risk is increasing as ocean‑atmosphere patterns begin to align.
For northern Victoria, El Niño events have historically been linked to reduced winter and spring rainfall, warmer daytime temperatures and increased pressure on water availability.
That can translate into challenges for irrigation allocations, pasture growth and crop establishment, particularly if catchments fail to recharge over winter.
The Bureau has stressed that El Niño does not automatically mean drought, but it does shift the odds towards drier conditions across southern and eastern Australia.
It also notes that ocean temperatures around Australia remain warmer than average, which can influence rainfall patterns and extreme weather events.
International researchers have also flagged the potential for a strong El Niño event, with US scientist Dr Paul Roundy suggesting there is “real potential” for an unusually powerful episode to develop in 2026-27.
However, Australian forecasters continue to emphasise that local impacts will depend on how multiple climate drivers evolve.
In the meantime, northern Victorian farmers should closely monitor updates, review seasonal risk settings and plan conservatively as the climate outlook becomes clearer in coming months.
