In its annual emissions monitoring report, the independent advisory body said the pace of emissions cuts would need to more than double over the next few years if the country was to get back on track.
"This is a clear warning sign," commission chief executive Jo Hendy said.
"Emissions are gradually falling but progress stalled in 2024, and current policy settings are not delivering at the pace needed."
The report said government decisions over the next 12 to 24 months would be critical.
It found New Zealand's second and third emissions budgets were at high risk, while the 2030 target for biogenic methane - largely produced by livestock - was unlikely to be met.
New Zealand has legislated emissions budgets as part of its plan to reach net zero long-lived greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, while also reducing methane from agriculture and waste.
The commission said faster uptake of existing low-emissions technologies could reduce costs for households and businesses, as well as cut exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices.
It cited electric vehicles, rooftop solar, batteries and industrial heat pumps as technologies that were already cheaper over time in some common uses.
Hendy said barriers such as upfront costs were slowing adoption, even where long-term savings were available.
The commission urged the NZ government to use targeted finance, clearer investment signals and better information to help households and businesses switch away from fossil fuels.
