Monash IVF, which has an assisted reproduction market share of about 20 per cent, now expects to report an underlying net profit between $17 million and $18 million for the 2025/26 financial year.
"The key driver for the revised FY26 earnings outlook is lower than expected Australian ART (assisted reproductive technology) market activity in the second half," it told the stock exchange on Friday.
It had previously expected a result of around $20 million.
Australian stimulated cycle volumes are down 4.7 per cent in the three months to April, from the same period last year, according to Medicare data cited by the company.
"The impact of adverse market conditions has continued through May and June," Monash said.
A stimulated cycle is a phase of IVF treatment that involves the use of medications to stimulate the ovaries to produce multiple eggs.
However, the Melbourne-based company said its international operations are growing, with second-half volumes expected to be higher than last year.
The company is in the midst of a cost-cutting drive, ahead of reporting its annual results on August 24.
In April, Monash rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from WHSP Holdings and private equity group Genesis Capita of 90 cents per share.
The target said the offer was a "substantial" discount to comparable IVF transactions in the Australian market and undervalued the company.
It was not the first time investment vehicle WHSP Holdings and private equity group Genesis Capital have cast their eyes over Monash IVF.
They first pursued the target in November, when Monash IVF was under pressure over an embryo implant scandal.
A patient at a laboratory in Melbourne's southeast was implanted with her own embryo on June 5 rather than one from her partner, as requested.
Monash later blamed human error and IT limitations for the incident.
Then, WHSP and Genesis offered 80 cents per share for all the stock in Monash IVF, which has struggled to trade above 90 cents for more than 12 months.
It closed yesterday at 67 cents, giving it a market value of $261.1 million.
About 20,200 babies conceived by IVF are born in Australia each year, according to the latest figures from the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction database.
This represents about one in 18 children, rising to one in 10 for those born to mothers aged 35 and older.
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