Despite the recent wet conditions, the Northern Victorian Resource Manager is forecasting low openings when the season gets started in August.
For the Goulburn system, in average inflow conditions, the possible starting point will be 39 per cent, and for the Murray system, 44 per cent.
Under similar inflow conditions, the Loddon system will start with 39 per cent, and the Broken system, 38 per cent.
If the inflows to storages conform to a dry scenario, then the opening allocations will be much less.
Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said the announcement included a declaration of a low risk of spill in the Goulburn system.
“The risk is below the 10 per cent threshold. Water held in Goulburn spillable water accounts will be made available for use or trade.
“The risk of spill in each of the Murray and Campaspe systems is about 30 per cent.”
Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.
“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages.”
Dr Bailey also announced the opening allocations at the start of the new financial year.
The Murray system starts 2026-27 with a seasonal determination of 29 per cent of high-reliability water shares.
The Goulburn system begins with 15 per cent.
The Campaspe system starts 2026-27 with 35 per cent, and the Loddon system begins with three per cent.
The Broken and Bullarook systems both start the year with zero per cent.
Dr Bailey said the opening seasonal determinations had benefited from recent wetter conditions across much of northern Victoria.
“Rainfall through May and June was a welcome change in an otherwise dry 2025-26,” Dr Bailey said.
“Inflows to many of the major storages during June were close to the long-term average.
“The additional water in storage is important because reserves for 2026-27 were low at the end of autumn.
“While there have been improvements in the storages in the Broken and Bullarook systems, more rain and more inflow is needed before seasonal determinations can be made for the two systems.”
Dr Bailey said improvements from rainfall forecast for early July would be included in the next seasonal determination update on July 15.
In the Murray system of NSW, the local water utility, domestic and stock, and sub-category high security water access licences have received their maximum (100 per cent) allocations.
High security licence holders have received their full (97 per cent) opening allocation.
General security carry over into the 2026-27 water year is anticipated to be less than 25 per cent of total shares.
The Barmah-Millewa EWA has been borrowed fully as general security opening allocation is zero (less than 30 per cent).
Regular fortnightly water allocation statements will start on Wednesday, July 15.
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