Australia’s beef exporters may get a unique opportunity as global markets shift and supply tightens. Photo: Darren England/AAP
Northern Victorian beef producers are well placed to capitalise on a rare convergence of global market forces, as shrinking supply from the world’s largest exporters opens new doors for Australian beef.
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A new RaboBank research report has found global beef production has fallen 2.5 per cent, with powerhouse exporters posting the steepest declines.
Brazil is down four per cent, the United States three per cent, and China two per cent, and all are expected to continue falling.
Against that backdrop, Australia’s beef production is strong and export volumes have reached record highs, according to RaboBank’s Global Beef Quarterly Q2 2026 report.
RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.
RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said the combination of global tightening and a strong domestic industry had created a perfect storm for local producers.
“When you have global production moving lower across several major regions at the same time, it tends to underpin trade opportunities for reliable exporters,” he said.
“Australia is well placed to capture demand where supply from competitors becomes tighter or less consistent.”
For northern Victorian producers, many of whom supply premium grassfed and grainfed beef, the opportunity is particularly significant.
Australia’s high-quality beef has few global rivals, with mainly the United States producing at a similar standard.
Simon Quilty spoke at an agricultural outlook lunch earlier this month, hosted by Shepparton United Football Club.
Photo by
Jack Hicks
Wangaratta-based Independent global meat and livestock market analyst Simon Quilty said the premium beef market was proving especially lucrative, and Australia was uniquely positioned to fill the gap when The US supply tightened.
The competitive landscape is also being reshaped by a landmark EU-Mercosur trade deal, which gives South American producers from Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and beyond access to European markets at a reduced tariff of 7.5 per cent.
The agreement is expected to draw South American beef away from US and Asian markets, where it has historically competed with Australian product.
The tariff reduction on high-quality cuts takes effect immediately, with the broader deal phasing in over five years, freeing up further space for Australian exporters across Asia.
Closer to home, Australian beef exports to China have surged 31 per cent in the first five months of 2026, as exporters moved quickly to capitalise before hitting new quota limits.
Australia reached 90 per cent of its threshold on June 2, with the full quota expected to be reached within weeks.
“China is one of our largest markets, taking approximately 20 per cent of our export volumes in 2026,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
Mr Quilty said the easing of US-China beef tariffs would redirect American exporters toward Chinese consumers, potentially opening additional space for Australian product in Japanese and Korean markets.
Exports to the Middle East have also returned to pre-war levels, he said, underscoring the industry’s resilience in the face of geopolitical disruption.
Despite the favourable global outlook, Mr Gidley-Baird cautioned that higher input costs continue to weigh on producers.
"Higher oil prices are increasing the cost of fuel, fertiliser and other key inputs, particularly affecting regions like Australia that are exposed to Middle Eastern energy markets," he said.
"These pressures are expected to push up livestock feed and production costs locally."
For beef farmers across the Goulburn Valley and northern Victoria, managing those pressures while positioning to capture export premiums will be the defining challenge of the season ahead.
