Simon Quilty, from Global AgriTrends, was the luncheon’s keynote speaker.
Photo by
Jack Hicks
Shepparton United Football Club stepped outside the boundary lines last Friday, May 29, hosting an agriculture outlook luncheon that drew more than 100 industry stakeholders to the H.T. Luck Pavilion at Deakin Reserve.
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Club president Kevin Hicks said the community-focused business lunch pulled together a keynote address and panel discussion covering water markets, the grains outlook, and the global meat and livestock trade.
The end-of-season timing was intentional, and Mr Hicks hoped the event would become an annual fixture, helping to raise funds for the club.
“It delivered a rural message,” Mr Hicks said.
More than 100 people bought tickets to the event. Kevin Hicks hopes the event will run again and become an annual fixture.
Photo by
Jack Hicks
The headline speaker was Simon Quilty, owner of Global AgriTrends’ Australian branch, born and bred in Shepparton, but now based in Wangaratta.
Mr Quilty spoke for an hour before joining a panel discussion with Ben Ruscoe, David McKenzie, Rob Inglis and Harriet Grimshaw.
Mr Quilty’s central message was that global market disruption, while real, was more navigable than some headlines suggested.
Meat and livestock prices halved in March following conflict in the Middle East, but have since largely recovered as the industry adapted, switching to frozen product, using overland routes, and adjusting supply chains.
“The lasting impacts of the war on access to the market are minimal for sheep and beef,” he said.
Sheep prices remain around two-thirds of pre-conflict levels, but Mr Quilty expected a full recovery within four to six weeks.
ABARES has offered a more cautious outlook, tipping lamb saleyard prices to moderate by nine per cent across 2026-27 as a drier season forecast weighs on restocker confidence.
On China, Mr Quilty flagged that Australia’s beef export safeguard tariff, triggered when shipments exceed the quota threshold under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, was likely to be activated within weeks, but argued the impact would be limited.
The recent Trump-Xi meeting has pushed American product back into the Chinese market, opening space for Australian exporters in Japan and Korea as an outlet to manage volumes.
ABARES broadly supports that view, forecasting export prices to fall 7 per cent in 2026-27 once the quota is filled, but noting the decline is less sharp than previously expected.
The longer-term outlook Mr Quilty painted was bullish.
The US cattle industry is entering a herd-rebuilding phase, which will reduce US export volumes and open space for Australian product.
The event was a success, drawing stakeholders from across the Goulburn Valley. Pictured are Fergus Kearney, Michael Kearney and Lochlan Hicks.
Photo by
Jack Hicks
Australia is likely to enter its own rebuild cycle, supporting prices over the next two to three years, an ABARES forecast also supports, tipping US beef production to fall further in 2026-27 as producers increase heifer retention.
“We have got here today mainly on the back of strong global demand,” Mr Quilty said.
“We have benefitted from that demand, now we have a chance to benefit from a lack of supply."
Tickets were $120 a head or $1000 for a table of nine.
The event was supported by Elders Shepparton, Global AgriTrends, Clear Grain Exchange, Opteon and the Committee for Greater Shepparton.
