Already the world's second largest steelmaker, India plans to double output to 400 million tonnes by 2035-2036 from the current 168 million tonnes.
While still a fraction of China's almost one billion tonnes of production, the new targets will require vast additional quantities of iron ore and metallurgical coal, which in the latter case India almost entirely imports.
BHP, among the world's largest producers of met coal, expects demand in India to double by 2050, group sales and marketing officer Michiel Hovers said at an industry conference in Singapore on Tuesday.
The miner has long said Southeast Asia will be a key growth market.
Rio Tinto chief commercial officer Bold Baatar told the same conference that new steel demand in India and Southeast Asia will offset stagnation in China, where a crisis in the property sector, once the biggest steel consumer, is in its fifth year.
Steel output in China fell to a seven-year low in 2025, compounding the growing challenge iron ore miners face from state-run buyer, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), which is using hardball tactics including purchasing bans to negotiate better terms for the country's steelmakers.
The situation in China looks like it is unlikely to improve this year.
Chinese steel demand is set to fall again, deputy secretary-general Jinkui Zhao told the same conference.
Meanwhile, CMRG last month kicked off a new pressure campaign against iron ore miner Fortescue, following a protracted effort against BHP this year.
